June 1 marked the start of the 2012 hurricane season. A near to below normal Atlantic hurricane season is expected in 2012 even though 2 named storms have already formed in late May this year (only the third time in history this has happened). Early activity does not usually indicate latter season activity.
The official NOAA forecast calls for:
9-15 named storms
4-8 hurricanes
1-3 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher)
Several factors are coming together to potentially reduce the number or storms for the 2012 season compared to both 2010 and 2011 which had 19 named storms.
1). Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the region between Africa and the Caribbean Sea are running 1-2 degrees below normal for this time of year which suggest cooler than normal water in the Atlantic. Tropical cyclones feed off of warm water, so cooler than average conditions usually indicates a potential for less activity and less intense storms.
2). Forecasted sea level pressures across the entire Atlantic basin are forecasted to run between 50-80% above average during the peak of the 2012 season which again points toward negative conditions for development.
3). The forecasted development of El Nino (warmer than average waters by .5C in the central Pacific). ENSO forecasting models show the current neutral conditions warming to El Nino conditions by late summer. How fast this happens could have a major impact on the Atlantic hurricane season, as El Nino is a major hindrance of Atlantic basin tropical activity due to increased upper level wind shear. If El Nino forms quicker than currently expected, the number of tropical cyclones will probably be toward the lower end of the forecast (9-12).
As with any hurricane season, it is not the number of storms, but where they impact that is important. Current patterns for 2012 support “close-in” development in the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE US coast with potential for quick impacts. I remind everyone that it only takes one storm to make a bad year in your particular area (1983 only had 4 tropical systems the entire season, but one was category 3 hurricane Alicia, the last major hurricane to strike the upper TX coast).
Now is the time to review your hurricane preparation plans, prepare a hurricane kit, plan you evacuation route if a public evacuation is needed, and review your insurance policies….remember home owners insurance DOES NOT cover flood damage and flood insurance takes 30 days to go into effect. Prepare NOW!
