I predict, given a few variations of the word predict, is an uncommonly common theme in our world. At the present time the news is full of polls about what will happen in early November. The articles in the news are full of why this one or that one will or won’t be the winner.

In addition, every week there are a multitude of predictions about who will win this week’s game. It is important to the sport fan or the gambler. All gambling is a prediction of some sort. The Casinos don’t gamble, the players do. As I look around there I don’t see many laughing. However, if you spell it gambol, I guess horses have fun when they gambol.

The polls use statistics to tell you how a few can tell you what the nation thinks. Don’t get me wrong. In an earlier life I was deeply involved in statistical quality control. I know that stuff works. I also know it only works to a degree. When you are measuring dimensions on a series of parts you can predict the accuracy of the whole lot of the parts by measuring only a few.

Seemingly complicated math methods give you a range of that accuracy. Manufacturers call that the tolerance. If the range of the prediction falls within the acceptable tolerance the entire group of parts being tested are considered good.

The polls have many more problems than the type of statistics described earlier. One of the requirements of poll type of predicting is you have to have a truly random set of people who you ask the questions. The questions themselves have to be unbiased. The math to minimize those problems is order of magnitude more difficult and less accurate.

One of the things that bothers me is that I have rarely been one of the participants of those polls. I have been in a few surveys. Let’s say a company wants to know if I liked something they did for me. The people who did the service have often told me that if they get anything but a “perfect 10” they will be punished in some way. I had to be really mad at what happened to not give a high score. So much for accuracy in that case.

Also, if a poll says that my favorite isn’t winning my first thought is they didn’t ask me. Or the question was something like have you stopped kicking your pet. Sometimes the answer should have been “None of your business”.

This year they say neither of the major candidates are popular. However, the major media seems to like one over the other a lot. But then, when can you trust major media?

Some even say the system is broken. That is to be discovered. It certainly seems to have worked these last 240 or so years. On that basis I don’t think a revolution is in order . . . yet, Sad to say George and Thomas are long dead.