Hurricane Tracks

Last month I got my first taste of what it feels like to live in an area where hurricanes can become big issues weather wise. If you have followed this column since January, you may have noticed that I have more than a passing interest in the weather. Not only am I a Skywarn spotter but I am also a storm phobic, an issue of which I am trying to raise awareness. Mostly I have a phobia of tornadoes and hurricanes, which meant that when tropical storm Debby started to do her thing in the Gulf recently, it was more than a little unnerving for me.

Thing is, I learned what most of you probably already know out here: Just because a storm is tracked one way on Monday it does not mean it will be tracked to the same location Tuesday, Wednesday, or any other day later in the week.

At one point a popular weather forum I visit had amateur and professional meteorologists alike discussing the possibilities of TS Debby becoming a hurricane, growing in strength in the warm Gulf waters and making landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and, you guessed it, Port Lavaca, where this humble writer had his abode.

So for that one night I started to frantically read all I could on tropical storm tracking and was shocked by the lack of concern of my neighbors, who took every little update of information from me with a nod and a smile.

Of course, the next day some of the forecast models had changed and instead of bringing Debby west towards Texas, was shooting her East towards Florida. And forgive me Florida; I have to say I was rooting for Debby to go your way rather than mine.

According to statistics provided by the National Weather Service, in actuality only twenty-five percent of areas that receive hurricane warnings actually receive those kinds of severe weather conditions. However, it should also be noted that this fact is no reason to take a hurricane warning lightly; especially as a hurricane is much bigger weather event then the circle and cone shown in the various tracking models, as wind and rain can extend for hundreds of miles from the center of the cyclone.

Thing is, it is hard to track the storms and know what they will do far in advance, which makes waiting for the possible severe weather even more nerve wracking, especially if you live right on the water or have family and pets to consider in the event a major storm or hurricane does actually effect your area.

According to the NOAA, the problem with accurately forecasting a hurricane’s path and strength lies in the fact that it is hard to create a mathematical model that can forecast the environmental flow in the atmosphere that can steer a hurricane. The model must also take on the challenge of measuring the activity at the core of the storm, including water temperature, which determines the storms intensity.

These and other factors make the various models track in different directions and different strengths as they all might make a small change to a variable or two that might mean the difference between boarding up your windows and sitting on the beach with a cold drink in your hand.

I guess my neighbors had the right idea as they just went about daily business as Debby decided to just go north and bother someone else. Next time I’ll remember to bring my grains of salt when a storm is five days out and just wait it out to see what happens. At the very least, I won’t be driving my neighbors crazy with every National Hurricane Center advisory update. After all, I might need them to hold the nails for me while I board up my windows.