Dr. John Nielson-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist and professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, was recently asked by Texas Water Resources Institute (TWRI) to give his insight on the current drought in our state.
“Since October 1, 2010, we’ve had a little more than nine inches of rain on average for the state,” said Dr. Nielson-Gammon. “Normal would be about 23 inches, so we’re well below 50 percent.”
“If we don’t get 4.5 inches of rain between now and the end of September, we will have the driest one-year period ever, surpassing 1956, which is the drought of record for most places.”
“Up until the last month or so, the outlook for this winter looked really promising. Some of the indications now say that we might see another La Niña developing, which will tilt the odds toward another dry winter. The thing to worry about is the 50 percent chance of a La Niña this winter and the possibility that the drought will continue and water supplies will continue to get worse.”
“I suspect that if the drought continues like it has, sometime next year some places in the state will exceed their drought of record and with the increase of population and the increase of water use we’ll start seeing some serious problems. Hopefully during the next few months places will work out and try to figure out, ‘Well, what would happen if we had another dry year like this one? How much projections in water use would that be? What restrictions would we have to put in?.’ Not often can you see a disaster coming a year in advance, and certainly the odds are against a disaster next year, but the odds are a lot better now than they would be in other years. So this is a rare opportunity to plan ahead for a disaster that may be coming and prevent it from becoming a disaster.”
“It’s important to separate optional uses of water from mandatory uses of water. You have to drink; you don’t necessarily have to keep your lawn green throughout the year. The more water that gets conserved now, the more water is available for next year if the drought goes on into next year.”
Do you have questions about water? TWRI can help.
TWRI fosters and communicates priority water resources research and educational outreach programs throughout Texas. We have extensive listings of water conservation and drought resources, in addition to our various publications. We produce txH2O, a magazine published three times per year that features water research and education in Texas.
This special newsletter is distributed in association with New Waves, TWRI’s monthly email newsletter, which delivers breaking news about water resources education and research in Texas. To subscribe to TWRI publications, visit twri.tamu.edu/publications/subscribe.
